"You indie game will flop and you will lose money"
http://positech.co.uk/cliffsblog/2017/0 ... ose-money/
Also see presentation: http://positech.co.uk/cliffsblog/
Money quote:
This is a WINNER TAKES ALL market. You are either in the top 0.1% of indie game developers, or you are unemployed, with an expensive hobby where you make effectively free games.
Has some basic calculations and is more of an opinion piece... but I guess everyone here knows this already
Also interesting: https://youtu.be/y4a7K-I-F5s